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The Niagara Independent, August 7, 2020 \u2013 <\/em>If rumours come to be true, federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau will soon fall on his sword as the fall-guy for the Prime Minister and his Liberal insiders who are all caught up with the government\u2019s WE ethics scandal.<\/p>\n Bill Morneau\u2019s departure from the Ottawa scene is being forecasted throughout media, including many Liberal-friendly news agencies. The\u00a0Toronto Star<\/em>\u00a0suggested that the Finance Minister is \u201cblinded by his own privilege\u201d and that he is \u201cpainfully out of touch with Canadians.\u201d The\u00a0National Post<\/em>\u00a0tagged Morneau as enjoying \u201ca privileged life\u201d having inherited a hugely profitable family business.\u00a0CBC News<\/em>\u00a0did an investigative \u201cgotcha\u201d report that dissed him: \u201cWE employees say they were told to attend 2018 holiday party in Bill Morneau\u2019s riding.\u201d \u00a0The\u00a0Toronto Sun<\/em>\u00a0had a lead editorial that critically assessed the Finance Minister: \u201cMorneau\u2019s integrity appears to be kept in his cheque book.\u201d<\/p>\n It appears inevitable that when the PM gets around to sharing his cabinet shuffle plans, Morneau\u2019s cue will be \u201cexit stage left.\u201d \u00a0His leaving will lead to reviews of his record at the helm of Canada\u2019s finances. Here is an overview of that record.<\/p>\n Recall that when newly elected Justin Trudeau unwrapped his first Liberal cabinet in Fall 2015 it was no surprise that he appointed a Toronto financial services businessman to manage the Liberal Government\u2019s fiscal plan. Bill Morneau has always been the Trudeau Liberal\u2019s finance backstop. In his first federal budget address, Morneau indicated there would be a new direction in fiscal policy, a \u201cfundamental change\u201d that would include substantial \u201cinvestments by government.\u201d<\/p>\n Despite the 2016 Budget projections, which stated the Liberal Government would balance the books in five years, the Trudeau Government ran $89.1 billion in accumulated deficits over the five years of their first mandate under Morneau\u2019s stewardship. In those five years, spending on federal government programs increased every year and, in total, by nearly $70 billion or at a striking 27.2 per cent rate. In fact, the Trudeau Government has the dubious record of three of the highest levels of per-person program spending per year in Canadian history\u00a0\u2013 and that is before the COVID-19-impacted recession.<\/em><\/p>\n Fast forward to the 2019 Liberal campaign platform and it is obvious that Bill Morneau and PM Trudeau had rejected the need to balance the country\u2019s ledger. The Liberals\u2019 second mandate was to feature a projected four years of $20 billion-plus deficits and an additional number of huge, uncosted spending items including pharmacare.<\/p>\n Morneau\u2019s pre-COVID-19 fiscal management has proven costly. As a result of tax changes in the federal budgets through 2019, a vast majority (80 per cent) of middle-income Canadians have experienced increases to their personal income tax. Also, the mountain of new debt will prove an even greater burden on future generations of taxpayers. Former NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair wrote in a\u00a0Sun Media<\/em>\u00a0editorial earlier this year: \u201cTrudeau will have created $10,000 of new debt for every man, woman and child in Canada during his time in office. The sums are staggering\u2026. Once again, this generation of leaders is putting everything on the maxed-out credit card of our grandchildren.\u201d<\/p>\n The Trudeau Government\u2019s pre-COVID-19 fiscal record has been brought under greater scrutiny with the pandemic pressures now bearing down on Canada\u2019s economy. In the \u201cfiscal snapshot\u201d last month, Bill Morneau revealed the deficit for 2020-21 is expected to rise to $343.2 billion. This is greater than in any single year deficit during the Great Depression; ten times the projected $34.4 billion deficit before the pandemic hit!\u00a0 Due to $212 billion in direct support to individuals\u00a0and businesses, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 49 per cent this fiscal year, up from 31 per cent in 2019-20. (This is alarming given the 49 per cent rate is far above what the International Monetary research tells us is the optimal 26-30 per cent of GDP.)<\/p>\n To put all these numbers in context, this is by far the worst financial statement in Canada\u2019s history. The federal Liberals, under the watch of Bill Morneau, are outspending all past federal governments, including those governments that had to respond to world wars and global recessions.\u00a0And despite the unbridled government spending and persistent year-over-year deficits, the Finance Minister has offered no plan to reach a balanced budget. Yet, in his silence, the federal department of finance has come forward to estimate that with the current fiscal planning, deficits will last until at least 2040 (note that this estimate pre-dates COVID-19).<\/p>\n The Morneau fiscal plan is failing Canadians according to Fraser Institute economists who opined that \u201cThe Liberal mix of higher taxes, more government spending and deeper indebtedness did not result in a robust economy as promised\u2026. GDP and income growth have slowed and business investment has collapsed. And that all happened before anyone had heard of COVID-19.\u201d<\/p>\n If Pierre Trudeau and John Turner go down in Canadian history as \u201cthe fathers\u201d of our national debt and the fiscal innovators who introduced the notion of \u201cdeficit financing,\u201d then Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau will be notorious for their seemingly unrestricted spending and being responsible for amassing the country\u2019s burdensome $1 trillion-plus national debt.<\/p>\n Conservative finance critic MP Pierre Poilievre recently provided this analogy in an editorial: \u201cThe economy is like a horse carrying big bags of debt on his back up a hill. There is just one horse who must carry not only federal government debt, but also all the provincial, municipal, household and corporate debt. As of 2018 (BEFORE COVID-19!), total public and private debt equaled about 356 percent of GDP. So, the horse carried more than three and a half times his weight that year\u2026. [Now] total private and public debt could reach 400 percent of GDP by the end of this fiscal year\u2026. these debts will break the horse\u2019s back. Whispering in his ear about imaginary \u201cbalance sheets\u201d will not stop him from collapsing. He is a horse after all. Not a unicorn.\u201d<\/p>\n This dark assessment of Canada\u2019s financial situation is a marked difference from the Liberals\u2019 sunny-days prediction that \u201ca budget will balance itself.\u201d If one is to accept ministerial responsibility, the dismal reality of today\u2019s numbers must be attributed to the fiscal stewardship of Minister Morneau. And it is for his record as finance minister that Bill Morneau should be removed from his cabinet post, and not because of some PM power play to save face in the aftermath of the WE scandal.<\/p>\n Chris George<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of\u00a0CG&A COMMUNICATIONS<\/a>. Contact:\u00a0ChrisG.George@gmail.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n