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The Niagara Independent, January 1, 2021\u00a0 \u2013 <\/em>In his year-end messages, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau coyly suggested on a number of occasions, \u201cWe might have an election.\u201d Then he quickly adds that he personally is \u201cnot eager\u201d to have one. Despite his stated reluctance the PM says the Liberals are battle-ready. It is an ill-kept secret that he has held Party caucus meetings to place his MPs and candidates on standby for an election call in early 2021.<\/p>\n In the past few weeks the CBC has heralded promising electoral predictions for the Liberals, such as this one: \u201cIf an election were held today, the Liberals almost certainly would\u00a0win it \u2014 and perhaps capture a majority of the seats up for grabs, too.\u201d The state-broadcaster reports that its polls have the Liberals in a very comfortable position: \u201cWith 2020 coming to a close, the Liberal Party is the only federal party in a much better position than it was 12 months ago\u2026 Nationwide, Justin Trudeau\u2019s Liberals lead with 35.7 per cent support, compared to 31 per cent for Erin O\u2019Toole\u2019s Conservatives\u2026 the Liberals have more support in every part of the country.\u201d<\/p>\n In multiple reports through December, CBC reveals that the Liberals\u2019 backroom operatives are itching to test the electoral waters. \u201cFive sources familiar with the thinking in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s Liberal Party say a snap election is likely\u2026 Liberal insiders say the 48-year-old Trudeau, son of Pierre who was the third-longest serving prime minister in Canadian history, is determined to lead the party into the next election and win a majority. Another \u201csenior Liberal said, \u201cThe problem about leaving an election until 2022 is that we will look less fresh, and if people are fed up they could be looking for an alternative by then.\u201d<\/p>\n The apparent plan is to launch a \u201cwe have your back\u201d campaign after delivering a March or April budget that will promise billions of dollars of further aid for individuals. The rationale for the snap election will be the Liberals\u2019 need for a clear mandate to implement their bold, progressive agenda that will ensure Canada \u201cbuilds back better.\u201d Canadians will be asked to think big and be world leaders in our environmental policies and with our economic and social reforms. Liberals are counting on the PM to out-campaign the opposition parties; the election will turn on the question of leadership without any substantive debate on issues.<\/p>\n Canadians are to overlook the ominous national debt and the government\u2019s fiscal policies. In her fall economic statement, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland reported a deficit projection of more than $381 billion \u2013 possibly ballooning to over $400 billion by March 2021. In just three months from April to June 2020, this federal government recorded a $120 billion deficit. In this same period, Canada\u2019s economy shrank an unparalleled 38 percent. This year Canada\u2019s overall economy is expected to shrink 6.8 percent \u2014 the sharpest drop since the Great Depression.<\/p>\n A recent CBC investigative series revealed the Government is spending billions \u2013 at a rate of $952 million a day \u2013 seemingly without controls and with no intention of accounting for the dollars spent. This past week, the\u00a0National Post<\/em>\u00a0reported it had surveyed six former Department of Finance officials who expressed concerns over the Trudeau Government\u2019s lack of fiscal transparency and accountability for its spending. Don Drummond stated, \u201cThe lack of transparency around the government\u2019s intentions in its economic and fiscal forecast is not acceptable in a democracy. I think everyone should be concerned about this.\u201d<\/p>\n David Dodge, the Deputy Minister of Finance for Minister Paul Martin in the Chretien Government, gave a damning indictment of the current Government\u2019s performance, \u201cThe policies of the government in power, and the proclivities of the current prime minister, are not particularly oriented towards the hard work of generating economic growth, and that can make things difficult for the Department of Finance.\u201d \u00a0Dodge assessed, \u201cIt\u2019s a lack of discipline and a lack of focus on actually delivering. You send out a press release and that\u2019s seen as the end game, whereas the real issue is in actually governing.\u201d<\/p>\n The single greatest policy advanced by the Trudeau Government through its mandates has been its environmental agenda, which has essentially amounted to the imposition of increasing amounts of carbon taxes. Canada\u2019s global leadership in cleaning and greening the planet is sure to be a main plank in the Liberals platform.\u00a0 In the upcoming election, Canadians will be asked to consider the global climate challenge without factoring what impact the Liberal approach will have on their standard of living and the country\u2019s economic sustainability.<\/p>\n Again, Canadians are to overlook the government\u2019s three-prong carbon tax program that has been introduced in the last 12 months. First, there is the scheduled hike in the federal carbon tax that will have Canadians paying in 2030 an additional 53 cents per litre in carbon tax at the pump \u2014 and a still undisclosed increase for\u00a0home heating, natural gas, and propane. Second, the government is introducing a new Clean Fuel Standard carbon tax on the country\u2019s business community that, by the government\u2019s own analysis, is going to add hundreds of dollars per year to a person\u2019s heating and driving costs. Third, the government unveiled 64 new green measures and subsidy programs that are estimated to cost Canadians $15 billion.<\/p>\n Perhaps the most pressing reason for the Trudeau Liberals to prompt an early 2021 election call is their apprehension with how Canadians may respond to the government\u2019s vaccination plan. It\u2019s an unfolding story that likely will not have a favourable conclusion for the Liberals. This month PM Trudeau excitedly promoted the delivery of the first 19,000 doses of the vaccine to Canada. He has made the promise of 368,000 doses by the end of the year. The PM makes a point of reminding Canadians on the total numbers vaccinated across the country. As of Wednesday this week 85,256 doses have been administered in Canada (and it is important to note that each person is to receive two doses). Given the available doses for distribution in our country, we might hope that in early January a total of approximately 180,000 Canadians will have been vaccinated.<\/p>\n Now consider: the UK reported 138,000 people vaccinated in early December and 5,000,000 doses distributed through the month. Mexico is administering 1,400,000 doses for health workers by mid-January. Israel administered 650,000 doses as of Wednesday \u2013 99,000 of those were vaccinated in one day this week. And most remarkable is the vaccination program south of our borders where the U.S. has administered 2,670,000 as of this week and it is planning for the roll out of 20,000,000 doses in early January.<\/p>\n So, while the Trudeau Government\u2019s plan will have a little more than one million Canadians vaccinated by March 31st, the Americans are estimating that roughly 40 percent of their population (131+ million) will be vaccinated by March. Clearly, the Liberals will not want Canadians to be comparing and contrasting vaccination programs with the Americans, British and Mexicans.<\/p>\n As CBC and the Liberal campaign strategists spin it, PM Trudeau is to win his coveted majority mandate by reassuring Canadians that \u201cbudgets balance themselves,\u201d and explaining that because \u201cpollution is no longer free\u201d we have the opportunity to \u201cbuild back better.\u201d And Trudeau himself will tell Canadians that this is all possible: \u201cBecause it\u2019s 2021.\u201d<\/p>\n Chris George<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of\u00a0CG&A COMMUNICATIONS<\/a>. Contact:\u00a0ChrisG.George@gmail.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n