Parliament has now been in session for a couple of weeks and it appears the cast has been set for what Canadians can expect from the federal scene for months to come. There are three key matters that are dominating the Ottawa agenda.
- The reference point for all arguments and activities is the 2015 election. We are officially into a year-long, politically-charged pre-writ period. MPs feel the tension as the power base has become more fluid. Important to note is that 33 MPs (21 Conservatives) have said they are not running or have already resigned – so the Government’s majority is no longer held with their incumbent MPs. More significant is the fact that the House of Commons will look different next year with 30 seats added in next election; 15 in Ontario, 6 each in B.C. and Alberta and 3 in Quebec. Results of a recent electoral analysis, project that there are 50 MPs who would win their ridings with a margin of victory of 5% or less. There are 19 close races in Ontario, 12 in Quebec and 7 in BC. With the balance of power very much at stake, know that all MPs have done the numbers and know the math.
- If the reference point is the election, the game-changer is proving to be Justin Trudeau. No doubt, Justin is the straw stirring the drink. Nobody has yet put a finger on what is carrying his popularity (his name, his hair?). Whatever it is, his boyish charm has become a real problem for the fatherly Stephen Harper and serious-minded Thomas Mulcair. What’s unsettling most is that his approach is unconventional – and immature. For example, how do politicians have a serious debate about Iraq when Justin steals headlines with a CBC interview in which he chides the PM, saying “the Conservatives are again trying to whip out [their] CF-18s and show how big they are.” He is his father’s son in one regard, for sure, in his caviler regard for political opponents. Like his Dad pirouetting behind the Queen, Justin’s childish antics are the talk (and worry) of the town. It all has many serious-minded politicos shaking their heads and wondering whether Trudeau’s one-man act can bring the House down for the Liberals. .
- There are many issues that will headline Canadian news this year, but only one news item that really matters politically: The 2015 Conservative Budget. For the next five months until it is delivered, the Budget will play huge in setting the agenda on Parliament Hill and its many orbits of national interest organizations and lobbyists. The enticing fact is that next year, for the first time since the recession of 2008-09, the federal government will be trumpeting a budget surplus of upwards of $7 billion. This means millions upon millions of new spending in government departments and agencies, with interest groups and organizations, and handed out by way of transfers to provincial and municipal governments. The Conservatives will also likely deliver on its 2010 election promise of an income splitting plan for families. They will find new ways to give tax credits, benefits and perhaps individual cheques to Canadians – all in time for the Fall vote. (No doubt, many will chirp this is crass politics at its worse, bribing people with their own money. However, that is “how it works” and we only have to look back a few months to see how this ploy rewarded the McGuinty-Wynne Liberal Government. It is a well-worn page out of an old play book.)
Though it’s early on in this year-long game, Parliament Hill has a predictable air about it. For any watching this Ottawa storyline slowly unfold over the next six to eight months, best to get comfortable… it likely won’t produce any surprises until election promises are served up through next summer’s bbq season.
