The Niagara Independent, September 24, 2021 – Political pundits referenced titles of popular movies and TV shows in an attempt to make sense of Canadians’ most recent exercise in democracy. The 44th federal election was labelled “the Groundhog Day election”, “the Back to the Future election”, and “a Seinfeld election”, due to the fact that after a 36-day campaign Canadians were staring at results that were almost a mirror reflection of the political parties’ standings in the previous parliament.

On election night, the re-elected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed, “You are sending us back to work with a clear mandate to get Canada through this pandemic and to the brighter days ahead. What we’ve seen tonight is that millions of Canadians have chosen a progressive plan.”

The PM talking of “a clear mandate” and citing the endorsement of “millions of Canadians” is a distortion of the electoral results.

The fact is that Justin Trudeau has been returned to Ottawa and the Prime Minister’s Office with the least amount of electoral support ever in the history of Canada. Trudeau’s Liberals received 32.5 per cent of the popular vote – less than one in three people who cast a ballot chose to vote Liberal. The Monday vote continues a downward trajectory of support for the Liberal brand. Canadians’ support for the Trudeau Liberals has fallen from the high of 39.5 per cent in 2015 and 33.1 per cent registered in 2019.

On Monday night the Conservatives won the popular vote, garnering more than 5.6 million votes compared to 5.4 million for the Liberals.

The actual total votes cast was dismally low in this election. Elections Canada reports, with 99 per cent of polls accounted for, only 58.8 per cent of eligible voters got out to vote. Two in five Canadians did not bother to exercise their franchise. This figure matches the lowest turnout in the history of Canadian federal elections – which was in 2008.

When considering there are approximately 30 million Canadian voters, only one Canadian in six of eligible voters cast their ballots for Trudeau’s Liberals.

Yet, with the total number of seats in the urban and suburban areas of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, the Liberals were able to secure a comfortable minority government. In looking at those three cities, the Liberals swept all 25 seats in Toronto, 17 of 18 seats on the island of Montreal, and 15 of 23 in Vancouver.

However, Liberal support in these urban centres does not reflect their support across the respective provinces. Consider these numbers:

• Across the GTA, Liberals gained 49 per cent of the votes cast and 48 of 53 seats (with the remaining 5 seats retuning Conservatives). Outside of the GTA, Liberals picked up 30 seats, Conservatives 32, NDP 5, and Greens one.
• In Montreal ridings, the Liberals registered 41 per cent support, which is well above their 33 per cent support province-wide.
• In Vancouver, the Liberals got the lion’s share of seats with 36 per cent support. The provincial numbers tell a different story with support for the Liberals (27 per cent) trailing both the Conservatives (33 per cent) and the NDP (29 per cent).

The numbers tell us of a divide in the country between urban and rural voters and a divisive electorate that has only a sixth of Canadian voters supporting the governing party. Still, the Liberals have formed government and Justin Trudeau remains Prime Minister.

Gerald Butts, Trudeau’s best friend and Liberal backroom operative, took to Twitter this week to crow about the Liberals’ election strategy that delivered this result. Butts revealed that in the last few elections the Liberals have employed a specific method to maximize the vote efficiency in urban centres. Their tactics are dependent on vote-splits within the first-past-the-post electoral system (a system that Trudeau pledged to change in 2015 with his promised electoral reform).

In a series of tweets, Butts asserted, “If popular vote were the objective, campaigns would optimize for it…We count seats, not votes, so smart campaigns focus on delivering them…Politics is about delivering power to parties now; it’s no longer about serving the electorate. Your position of power simply because you know someone and rode the coat tails of their “brand” shows that to be the trend…Vote efficiency isn’t accidental.”

And in assessing the Liberals’ success, Butts gave credit to another of Trudeau’s boyhood friends, “All three Trudeau Liberal campaigns were among the most efficient in history. The unsung team of super geniuses put together and led by Tom Pitfield (@tompitfield) at Data Sciences deserves a lot more credit than they’ve ever received.”

Butts even went on to suggest the Liberals would have won elections earlier than the 2015 campaign had he and Pitfield been able to employ their election strategy. Some may describe politics as a blood sport, but for Butts and Pitfield it is a game of numbers.

Other notable numbers from election night:

• Of the 338 seats, only 16 seats flipped from one party to another. A total of 294 incumbent MPs have been returned to Ottawa.
• 19 candidates won by more than 50 per cent of the vote – 17 Conservatives from Alberta and Saskatchewan, and two Liberals in Quebec and New Brunswick.
• Conservatives swept Saskatchewan’s 14 seats with 59 per cent of the vote.
• In Alberta, Conservatives took 55 per cent of the vote to win 30 (possibly 31) of the 34 seats. George Chahal is currently the only confirmed Liberal to win in a Calgary riding. Liberal Randy Boissonnault is leading in his Edmonton riding – but this riding has yet to be declared.
• Two Liberal cabinet ministers were defeated – Bernadette Jordans and Maryam Monsef – only weeks before their six-year anniversary in office, when they would have qualified for their annual $71,000 “gold-plated” MP pension.
• Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada doubled their 2019 vote count with more than 830,000 votes. Although much is being written on whether PPC takes directly from Conservative support, the fact is that in 21 ridings across the country, the PPC vote count is greater than the number of votes by which the Conservative candidate lost. Given the majority of those seats were won by Liberals, had the Conservatives not suffered from the “PPC leakage,” Monday’s results would have been a Conservative minority.
• NDP incumbent Alexandre Boulerice retained his La Petite-Patrie riding on the Montreal island and is the last of the 59 “Orange Wave” NDP representatives from Quebec who rode Jack Layton’s coattails to victory in 2011.
• Advanced voting was up: in 2019, 26.6 per cent of all ballots cast were at advance polls and in 2021, 34.3 per cent of all ballots cast were at advance polls.

Finally, here is a number that is irritating given the senselessness of what just happened. The 44th federal election was the most expensive in Canadian history: costing taxpayers at least $612 million.

Chris George is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of CG&A COMMUNICATIONS. Contact: ChrisG.George@gmail.com

LINK: https://niagaraindependent.ca/canadas-44th-federal-election-by-the-numbers/

Photo credit: EPA-EFE/Eric Bolte / With wife Sophie, a newly re-elected Justin Trudeau gives his victory speech in Montreal following the 2021 federal election – an election that ended up a near-mirror image of its predecessor from 2019.

The Niagara Independent, September 17, 2021 – Justin Trudeau’s “vanity election” is coming to an end. The term to describe this unnecessary contest was coined by national affairs commentator Rex Murphy. He summed up the vote succinctly: “This election is hollow. It is without centre. It is without national purpose. It is idle, contrived, opportunistic, premature and cynical. It is just a Liberal game.”

Indeed, Canadians felt the minority government was working and there was no need for an election in the middle of a national health crisis. In July, 37 per cent of Canadians were upset with the thought of an election call – and another 34 per cent were unsure of any compelling reason to go to the polls. In the aftermath of the first national debate, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole observed, “We should not be in a campaign. Only Mr. Trudeau wanted this campaign for his own personal interests.”

Still, Canadians have survived a pandemic election like no other and will now head to the polls on Monday with pollsters indicating there is a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives. It’s a toss-up who will come out on top; there is a very high likelihood of another minority government.

Here are three factors to watch for on election night that will have a direct impact on the final vote count and which of the parties will form the next government.

1. How the anti-Trudeau vs. ABC voting plays out in the GTA 

Both parties are pulling out all stops to win in the 56 seats in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Erin O’Toole reminds people he is a son of an Oshawa GM worker and is an ordinary family guy trying to make ends meet in the GTA. The Conservative leader describes Trudeau as a direct contrast: “privileged,” “entitled,” “self-interested, divisive and unworthy of trust,” “a man who is not a feminist, not an environmentalist, not a public servant…a man who is focused solely and squarely on himself.”

The Liberals counter with repeatedly mentioning Stephen Harper and hidden agendas, and playing the fear card about immigration with new Canadians. Trudeau fires back at O’Toole: “he doesn’t lead, he misleads.” He asks, “Do we continue and move forward even faster and harder on the fight against climate change, or do we let Erin O’Toole take us back?” Employing every wedge issue possible, Trudeau tells Canadians they have a choice with gun control, abortion, housing, child care, and “the rights of Canadians who got vaccinated.”

At a recent rally the Liberals rolled out the legendary former Mississauga mayor Hazel McCallion to give her endorsement (which is not as glowing as they promote). McCallion said: “I support Justin, I think he’s a young man that I think has tried to do a good job, but that doesn’t mean I’m always a supporter of the things that he does.” She went on to say, “Trudeau shouldn’t have called this election. It was wrong.”

So, the question is whether the anti-Trudeau disgust or the anything-but-Conservatives (ABC) strategic voting by progressives will have any traction and make a difference in the GTA? Current polling has the Liberals holding a 20-point lead, with 47 per cent support in this region. If there is to be a swing in fortune for the Conservatives, it must happen here. In the 2019 election, all 25 Toronto ridings and 23 of the 31 surrounding urban ridings returned Liberal MPs. If Trudeau maintains this stranglehold on Toronto and the GTA, there is little to no hope of a Conservative government.

2. Whether Premier Legault’s direction to Quebecers impacts the vote    

Premier Francois Legault pulled no punches in signaling that he would like to see the Conservatives win a minority government. The popular premier stated, “To protect the nation of Quebec, I think we have to be careful with these parties (Liberals, NDP and Green). Those three parties, they are not ready to transfer powers to the Quebec government.”

He went on to say Justin Trudeau was dangerous to Quebec’s interests with health care, immigration, and with identity politics. In his rambling comments, Legault gave Erin O’Toole an endorsement by process of elimination and he stated that he hoped for a minority Conservative government before adding, “It’s up to Quebecers to choose…”

So, what might this endorsement mean for the Conservatives – and for the Liberals’ support in Quebec? The Liberals’ support is strongest in Montreal; and now with Legault’s comments can they win seats outside this urban area? Conservatives are currently polling 19 per cent on average in the province and, accounting on how that support is distributed, the best-case scenario would be to win 15 seats. Will they increase their seat count? In the last Parliament, Quebec’s 78 seats were divided as such: Liberals 35, Bloc Québécois 32, Conservatives 10, and NDP 1. Trudeau had hoped to form his majority with increased seats in Quebec – so we might know early in the night whether this is at all possible.

3. Whether the vote for the People’s Party steals Conservatives’ seats 

This week’s national opinion polls showed the Liberals with 32 per cent, Conservatives with 31 per cent, NDP with 20 per cent, and Green Party with 4 per cent. The People’s Party registered 7 per cent support nationally.

Regional polling reported by the Globe and Mail show that outside of Ontario’s GTA the Liberals are only nosing ahead of the Conservatives 33 to 32 percentage points – and the PPC support is 8 per cent. In BC, the Conservatives lead the Liberals in support 30 to 28 per cent – and the PPC support is 8 percent. In both regions, the People’s Party has the possibility of denying Conservative candidates their victories. Pollster Nik Nanos commented on this data: “They’re a significant factor in a number of races and should be of concern to the Conservatives.”

In an interview with The Hill Times, The Niagara Independent’s own Kate Harrison stated she was watching the PPC numbers with “a bit of caution,” not agreeing their support takes directly from the Conservatives.  “They are largely people that have been apolitical to this point or…by virtue of supporting the PPC, perhaps reject partisan politics altogether.”

Abacus polling data reveals that 3 in 5 PPC supporters backed the Conservatives in 2019 – 1 in 5 did not vote and the other 1 in 5 voted half for the Liberals and the other half somewhere else.

So, the question will be answered on election night whether this will have a direct impact on the Conservative seat count. In Ontario and BC races, where Liberal and NDP candidates eke out a win, simply add 60 per cent of the PPC vote count to the Conservative count and see if this makes a difference.

One final point of interest on Monday night will be viewing the results come in from a few bell-weather ridings: the fickle Fredericton seat, where the 2019-elected Green candidate Jenica Atwin is now running as a Liberal “incumbent”; the Peterborough-Kawartha riding, where Liberal cabinet minister Maryam Monsef is running hard needing to outdistance a formidable Conservative as well as her associating with “our brothers” the Taliban; the Vancouver Granville riding, where constituents have great faith in Jody Wilson-Raybould and must now decide who is her successor; and, most-interesting is the riding of St. Catharines, “the perennial bell-weather riding” that most-often will signal the party that forms government, where the Liberal incumbent Chris Bittle is hard pressed to defeat his conscientious and community-minded Conservative opponent Krystina Waler.

Chris George is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of CG&A COMMUNICATIONS. Contact: ChrisG.George@gmail.com

LINK: https://niagaraindependent.ca/three-factors-to-watch-for-on-election-night/

Photo credit: The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld / Left to right: Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, Green Party leader Annamie Paul, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative leader Erin O’Toole at the English-language leaders’ debate (sans Maxime Bernier) in Gatineau, Quebec, Sept. 9.

The Niagara Independent, January 1, 2021  – In his year-end messages, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau coyly suggested on a number of occasions, “We might have an election.” Then he quickly adds that he personally is “not eager” to have one. Despite his stated reluctance the PM says the Liberals are battle-ready. It is an ill-kept secret that he has held Party caucus meetings to place his MPs and candidates on standby for an election call in early 2021.

In the past few weeks the CBC has heralded promising electoral predictions for the Liberals, such as this one: “If an election were held today, the Liberals almost certainly would win it — and perhaps capture a majority of the seats up for grabs, too.” The state-broadcaster reports that its polls have the Liberals in a very comfortable position: “With 2020 coming to a close, the Liberal Party is the only federal party in a much better position than it was 12 months ago… Nationwide, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lead with 35.7 per cent support, compared to 31 per cent for Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives… the Liberals have more support in every part of the country.”

In multiple reports through December, CBC reveals that the Liberals’ backroom operatives are itching to test the electoral waters. “Five sources familiar with the thinking in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party say a snap election is likely… Liberal insiders say the 48-year-old Trudeau, son of Pierre who was the third-longest serving prime minister in Canadian history, is determined to lead the party into the next election and win a majority. Another “senior Liberal said, “The problem about leaving an election until 2022 is that we will look less fresh, and if people are fed up they could be looking for an alternative by then.”

The apparent plan is to launch a “we have your back” campaign after delivering a March or April budget that will promise billions of dollars of further aid for individuals. The rationale for the snap election will be the Liberals’ need for a clear mandate to implement their bold, progressive agenda that will ensure Canada “builds back better.” Canadians will be asked to think big and be world leaders in our environmental policies and with our economic and social reforms. Liberals are counting on the PM to out-campaign the opposition parties; the election will turn on the question of leadership without any substantive debate on issues.

Canadians are to overlook the ominous national debt and the government’s fiscal policies. In her fall economic statement, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland reported a deficit projection of more than $381 billion – possibly ballooning to over $400 billion by March 2021. In just three months from April to June 2020, this federal government recorded a $120 billion deficit. In this same period, Canada’s economy shrank an unparalleled 38 percent. This year Canada’s overall economy is expected to shrink 6.8 percent — the sharpest drop since the Great Depression.

A recent CBC investigative series revealed the Government is spending billions – at a rate of $952 million a day – seemingly without controls and with no intention of accounting for the dollars spent. This past week, the National Post reported it had surveyed six former Department of Finance officials who expressed concerns over the Trudeau Government’s lack of fiscal transparency and accountability for its spending. Don Drummond stated, “The lack of transparency around the government’s intentions in its economic and fiscal forecast is not acceptable in a democracy. I think everyone should be concerned about this.”

David Dodge, the Deputy Minister of Finance for Minister Paul Martin in the Chretien Government, gave a damning indictment of the current Government’s performance, “The policies of the government in power, and the proclivities of the current prime minister, are not particularly oriented towards the hard work of generating economic growth, and that can make things difficult for the Department of Finance.”  Dodge assessed, “It’s a lack of discipline and a lack of focus on actually delivering. You send out a press release and that’s seen as the end game, whereas the real issue is in actually governing.”

The single greatest policy advanced by the Trudeau Government through its mandates has been its environmental agenda, which has essentially amounted to the imposition of increasing amounts of carbon taxes. Canada’s global leadership in cleaning and greening the planet is sure to be a main plank in the Liberals platform.  In the upcoming election, Canadians will be asked to consider the global climate challenge without factoring what impact the Liberal approach will have on their standard of living and the country’s economic sustainability.

Again, Canadians are to overlook the government’s three-prong carbon tax program that has been introduced in the last 12 months. First, there is the scheduled hike in the federal carbon tax that will have Canadians paying in 2030 an additional 53 cents per litre in carbon tax at the pump — and a still undisclosed increase for home heating, natural gas, and propane. Second, the government is introducing a new Clean Fuel Standard carbon tax on the country’s business community that, by the government’s own analysis, is going to add hundreds of dollars per year to a person’s heating and driving costs. Third, the government unveiled 64 new green measures and subsidy programs that are estimated to cost Canadians $15 billion.

Perhaps the most pressing reason for the Trudeau Liberals to prompt an early 2021 election call is their apprehension with how Canadians may respond to the government’s vaccination plan. It’s an unfolding story that likely will not have a favourable conclusion for the Liberals. This month PM Trudeau excitedly promoted the delivery of the first 19,000 doses of the vaccine to Canada. He has made the promise of 368,000 doses by the end of the year. The PM makes a point of reminding Canadians on the total numbers vaccinated across the country. As of Wednesday this week 85,256 doses have been administered in Canada (and it is important to note that each person is to receive two doses). Given the available doses for distribution in our country, we might hope that in early January a total of approximately 180,000 Canadians will have been vaccinated.

Now consider: the UK reported 138,000 people vaccinated in early December and 5,000,000 doses distributed through the month. Mexico is administering 1,400,000 doses for health workers by mid-January. Israel administered 650,000 doses as of Wednesday – 99,000 of those were vaccinated in one day this week. And most remarkable is the vaccination program south of our borders where the U.S. has administered 2,670,000 as of this week and it is planning for the roll out of 20,000,000 doses in early January.

So, while the Trudeau Government’s plan will have a little more than one million Canadians vaccinated by March 31st, the Americans are estimating that roughly 40 percent of their population (131+ million) will be vaccinated by March. Clearly, the Liberals will not want Canadians to be comparing and contrasting vaccination programs with the Americans, British and Mexicans.

As CBC and the Liberal campaign strategists spin it, PM Trudeau is to win his coveted majority mandate by reassuring Canadians that “budgets balance themselves,” and explaining that because “pollution is no longer free” we have the opportunity to “build back better.” And Trudeau himself will tell Canadians that this is all possible: “Because it’s 2021.”

Chris George is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of CG&A COMMUNICATIONS. Contact: ChrisG.George@gmail.com

LINK: https://niagaraindependent.ca/a-preview-of-pm-trudeaus-2021-federal-election/

The Niagara Independent, November 6, 2020  – For months Canadians have had an insatiable fascination with the United States election. Canucks have been mesmerized by the political slugfest and media circus of the drawn out presidential race. Today there is an equal amount of marvel and shock with the vote results. In reflecting on what just happened south of the border, here are some key take-aways Canadians may wish to reflect on about our two Nations.

The U.S. is a country that is truly politically divided. Of the more than 141 million votes cast for the president, Joe Biden took 51.2 per cent of the vote, while Donald Trump took 48.8 per cent (at the time of this writing). Across the whole of the country there were only 3 million votes separating the two presidential candidates. Of note, Biden outdistanced Trump by 5 million votes in the States of New York and California. Therefore, figuratively speaking, these two populous States crowned the winner.

The electoral map of the U.S. clearly defines a geographical divide in America. There is a great “red sea” of Republican support in what Democrat operatives refer to as the “fly-over States.” There are two solid strips of Democrat blue connecting the largest American cities along the east and west coasts.

The tight results and the geographical definition of voter support can also be found in Canada’s 2019 election. Our last federal election was the first time in Canadian history that no single party received more than 35 per cent of the popular vote. The Liberals formed government with 33 per cent of the vote, while the Conservatives took 34 per cent and the other parties combined received 31 per cent (third place NDP had 16 per cent). With 6 million votes the Liberals captured 157 seats, largely won in the urban areas of the Greater Toronto Area, Montreal Island, and Vancouver. Canada’s cities are crimson red. Roughly the same number of votes turned the map of Canada west of the Ontario border Tory blue.

With one notable exception, Canadian Leaders demonstrated respect and due regard for the democratic process unfolding in America. Both PM Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole assumed statesmen postures and refrained from indicating any preference on the political outcome in the U.S. In media scrums leading up to the election, the PM and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland vowed repeatedly to work with whomever wins. In striking contrast, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh played to the media on U.S. Election Day to make Canadian headlines with the tweet “VOTE HIM OUT” and the statement, “I think it would be better for the world if Trump loses and I hope he loses.” Perhaps spirited on by his Leader, NDP MP Peter Julian liken the Republicans to the Nazis Party of 1933. (As a humourous aside, an American news commentator quipped about Singh’s slights that the Republicans and President Trump would not be aware of who Singh is – and they will never know him.)

But what does one make of the results when most opinion surveys indicated right up to voting day that Joe Biden held an average lead of ten points nationally and healthy margins in swing States? For example, one of the state polls by ABC-Washington Post gave Biden a 17-point lead in Wisconsin. Biden was declared winner in Wisconsin on Wednesday morning with a squeaky 49.5 to 48.9 per cent margin.

Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster of Trafalgar Group, surmised that the pollsters were incorrect because people are frightened of the aggressive tactics of the cancel culture. Cahaly said, “In this day and age, where people are shamed for their political opinions and canceled and all that nonsense, people just want to play their cards close to their chest.”

Cahaly comments that in media there may appear to be a distinctive narrative, yet in reality there is a substantial number of people who are silent — the proverbial “silent majority.” In Canada, we saw this recently when 74 per cent of Canadians expressed their belief that public statues of past leaders should not be destroyed or removed, even though our politicians are currently kowtowing to an outcry to crate statues and change the historical names of streets and buildings.

The exit polls in the U.S. provide a glimpse of the rationale of the nearly 70 million Americans who voted for Donald Trump. Three of the four who voted for the President marked their ballot on the basis of his stance on issues (only one in four voted “personality”). And the issues that were most important: jobs and the economy (35 per cent), racial equality (20 per cent), the pandemic (17 per cent), and crime and safety (11 per cent).

At the core of Trump’s support, people are feeling a great deal of anxiety with the change that is occurring around them. Many believe the Democrats pose an existential threat to U.S. culture. Matt Dallek, a political scientist at George Washington University, states, “Trump has really been masterful at tapping into the idea that the other side is this left-wing socialist enemy that is going to destroy American culture.”

Dallek contends Trump appeals to those Americans who feel alienated by progressive politics: “He is signaling just constantly that there is a more liberal, tolerant, urban, multi-cultural America that is coming for their culture and their country.”

Dallek points out that nearly three out of every five white voters in America are Trump voters. He also notes Trump was able to attract more ethnic minorities to vote for him than any Republican presidential candidate in a generation. His is an appeal that resonated with all who feel anxious about the change in the world and Dallek observes, “Americans are not so divorced from their Western-world cohorts.”

Lorrie Goldstein, Sun News columnist, draws the focus back onto current events on Parliament Hill, “Meanwhile, in Canada, the Liberals are filibustering the parliamentary committee trying to investigate Trudeau’s We Charity controversy and the parliamentary budget officer rebukes the Trudeau gov’t over spending secrecy. But … Orange Man Bad.”

With his Trumpian excuse, Goldstein may have provided our greatest take-away from the past few weeks: “Any Canadians sneering at the shit show election in the U.S. aren’t paying attention. Canada has its own circus going on.”

Chris George is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of CG&A COMMUNICATIONS. Contact: ChrisG.George@gmail.com

LINK: https://niagaraindependent.ca/marvel-and-shock/

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said Monday’s election results

confirm there’s a fire of frustration burning in Western Canada.

The Niagara Independent, October 25, 2019 — For politicos and pundits, inspecting and dissecting the results of a vote provides endless hours of amusement. Canada’s 43rd general election results have not disappointed – and in fact they have produced a few political firsts.

Consider this political first. The Trudeau Liberals will form government with the lowest share of popular vote in Canadian history. The Liberals recorded 33 percent of the vote and one needs to go back to the country’s confederation to find anything comparable. The last and only time a party formed government with less than 35 percent of the national popular vote was Sir John A. Macdonald in 1867 with 34.8 percent.

The Conservatives actually received a greater number of total votes: 6.1 million to the Liberals’ 5.8 million. Remarkably, like the U.S. presidential race four years ago, the Leader who garners the greatest number of votes does not win the Office.

The final seat count on Monday night also revealed a collapse of the NDP support in central Canada (one Quebec seat and six Ontario seats) and a failure of the Green Party to convert good will to actual votes (only 1.1 million votes nationally). The Liberals were the direct benefactor of the NDP and Green weaknesses and nowhere is this more evident than in Ontario. Though the Liberals dropped 20 seats nationally, their seat count in Ontario remains unchanged from the dissolution of Parliament. Liberals received 41 percent of the vote in Ontario; won all 25 seats in Metro Toronto and 24 of 29 seats in the GTA.

Toronto was but one City where the Liberals dominated. They also swept the ridings on Montreal Island, in Halifax, and won 4 of 6 seats in Winnipeg.

The Conservative bedrock in Western Canada resulted in lopsided ballot box victories and a bevy of seats. The Party captured all but one seat in Alberta with an avalanche of votes. In fact, 32 of 33 Albertan Conservatives captured 70 percent or more of their local vote. Conservatives swept Saskatchewan, won all but one rural Manitoba seats, and upped their seat count in B.C. And notably, the Conservatives defeated key Liberal Cabinet Ministers in the west: Amarjeet Sohi in Edmonton and (Sir) Ralph Goodale in Regina.

So, Monday’s vote reconfirms the Liberal base is built in the urban centres of central and eastern Canada, while Conservative support is entrenched in the West. It is a political divide in our country that has the potential of becoming a societal chasm. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, we are only beginning to witness the potential fracturing of the country.

On Monday night as the results were still being reported out, the term ‘Wexit,’ (a western Canadian version of Brexit) was trending on Twitter. Tuesday morning Alberta Premier Jason Kenney spoke with PM Trudeau to tell him directly the “deep frustration expressed by Albertans is very real.”  Kenny repeated to media later “If the frustration and alienation in Alberta continues, it will pose a very serious challenge to national unity.”

Both Premier Kenny and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe have publicly called on the newly elected Liberal Government to demonstrate its support for the West by advancing new development of pipelines and restructuring equalization payments. Unquestionably, these are two initiatives that the Trudeau-led-NDP-supported minority government will not address, which is sure to escalate the tension and sense of alienation for western Canadians.

Professor Barry Cooper of the University of Calgary opined about western alienation, “It’s about the bizarre ingratitude of Laurentian Canada and what they have taken from here. People are saying, ‘What is the point of belonging to a political organization where we are donors and no one says thank you.’” Peter Downing, the founder of the movement Wexit went further in stating, “People are heartbroken. The concept of Canada has died in a lot of people’s hearts.” Point of fact: the VoteWexit Facebook page with its motto “The West Wants Out” went from 2,000 members on the weekend to nearly 171,000 by Tuesday afternoon and the group has received more than $20,000 in donations and membership fees overnight.

Other facts from the national vote.

• On Tuesday there were diametrically opposing reactions in Canada’s eastern and western business communities, perhaps best illustrated by the companies SNC Lavalin and Husky Oil. The shares of Quebec’s SNC Lavalin surged 13 percent in trading with their investors’ belief that the Liberals will defer a prosecution agreement and allow the engineering company to escape justice. Conversely, hundreds of Husky Oil workers were laid off as the company is “taking steps to better align the organization and workforce” in Alberta and through western Canada.
• Elections Canada reports that four of the five biggest third-party spenders during the pre-writ and election campaign periods were organized labour. Unifor, the union representing a majority of Canada’s media, spent close to $1.3 million on an anti-Conservative ad campaign. The United Steelworkers, who endorse the NDP, spent the second-highest amount. Third was Fairness Works funded by the Canadian Labour Congress. Then there is Friends of Canadian Broadcasting that spent more than a half million dollars, and Canadian Federation of Nurses Union that spent $412,000. By comparison, Canada Proud, an anti-Liberal organization, spent just under $200,000.
• The national public opinion website 338CANADA.com was highlighted in media throughout the campaign period. For the record on the weekend it published its last seat count predictions: Lib 142 / Con 126 / NDP 34 / Bloc 33 / Green 2 / PPC 1 / Ind 0. Looking at the vote results, it under-estimated the Liberal tally by 15 while over-estimating NDP support.

Breaking news from the re-elected Prime Minister is that he will announce his Cabinet on November 20th. With this news, the ruminations of Ottawa’s chattering class will soon turn from the minutia of the vote results to the questions of governing in a minority Parliament.

Chris George is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of CG&A COMMUNICATIONS. Contact: ChrisG.George@gmail.com

LINK: https://niagaraindependent.ca/interesting-facts-from-the-election-entrails/

The Niagara Independent, September 6, 2019 — On the eve of the call of the Canadian federal election, here is a snapshot of polling numbers and trends on voter intention, compiled on Labour Day from available public opinion data.

Liberals enjoy a lead based on support in Ontario and Quebec

Politicking through the summer barbecue season made the election race even tighter between the Trudeau Liberals and Scheer Conservatives. Most national polls show a dead heat between the two parties. The 5-point lead the Conservatives held on Canada Day has evaporated. Popular support for the NDP has dipped and support for the other parties remained steady.

However, by breaking the numbers out regionally a clearer picture materializes. Conservatives enjoy large margins of support on the prairies; Liberals have the edge in Canada’s most populous provinces. Liberals lead Conservatives by 6 percentage points in Ontario and double that in Quebec. Because a vast majority of seats are found in central Canada, this bodes very well for the Liberals in all seat projections.

In analysing voter intention, Greg Lyle of the Innovative Research Group recently made an important point: Canadians who feel aligned to a particular party will most likely vote that way. Currently, more than three-in-four Canadians feel closer to one party than another. And more people feel closer to the Liberals than any other party. This is the case in Quebec where 29 percent of Quebecers align with the Liberals; 15 percent align with Conservatives and 14 percent align with the BQ. In “The Rest of Canada,” (TROC) Liberals enjoy an edge: 29 percent align with Liberals; 26 percent with Conservatives; 12 percent with NDP; 10 percent with Green. (Note 30 percent of Quebecers do not align with any political party, and in TROC 22 percent do not align with a party.) Lyle’s point in presenting these numbers is Canadians have more of an affiliation with the Liberal brand, so this speaks to a likely favourable result for the Trudeau Liberals.

PM Trudeau used the summer pre-writ period to the Liberals’ advantage 

Knowing the election date is less than seven weeks away on October 21, all eyes are now on the Prime Minister, as Canadians anticipate his walk to the Governor General’s Residence to request the writ be dropped to “officially” start the campaign. Once the campaign is called, all parties are placed on an even playing field and must stay within a $28 million spending limit.

The election law restrictions on spending is precisely why Justin Trudeau has been in no hurry to have the writ issued. As our Government representatives, PM Trudeau and Cabinet Ministers can travel the country with no limitations on their activities. In fact, the Liberals have made the most of the pre-writ period flying government jets into riding after riding. They have made 4,545 new spending commitments worth a combined $12.8 billion — in the month of August alone. To put these gross figures into perspective, in one month the Liberals committed approximately a quarter of all their funding promises that have been pledged since Fall 2015 when they were elected – totaling 16 percent of current and future federal government spending. Canadians have been wooed with the commitments of literally billions of taxpayers’ money. And because the election has yet to be called, PM Trudeau and his Cabinet Ministers have been unencumbered in spreading their joy.

Stories from the NDP and Conservative Campaigns     

The summer did not end well for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. This week Maclean’s blasted a headline “Is the NDP on the verge of collapse?” The magazine says the best case scenario for the party will be half its 2015 seat total, while the worst case will be to lose official party status. Then, news from New Brunswick reported that a total of 14 NDP candidates walked to the Green Party. The former NDPers issued an eight-point declaration encouraging “New Democrats, New Brunswickers and, indeed, all Canadians in voting for the Green Party of Canada this election.” Though the NDP numbers do not suggest the bottom has fallen out of Singh’s party, they are at historic lows for the NDP during a pre-election period. In Ontario, NDP support is at 14 percent while in Quebec (where a great many of the NDP MPs reside) it has fallen to 7 percent. Across the country NDP support lags 7 percent lower than the 2015 election results – support which appears to have leaked to the Green Party. At this level of support, it’s anxious times indeed for the NDP.

As for the Conservatives, Leader Andrew Scheer held a media conference to announce that they are the first party to have named a full slate of 338 candidates. This feat is well in advance of the other major parties that, combined, have almost 300 candidates yet to be named. The Conservatives have nominated 105 women, which eclipses their past high of 68 in 2011. The party also features a diverse list of candidates: Indigenous Canadians, Muslims, Sikhs, Jewish, Christians, Hindus, Buddhists and newly immigrated Canadians, and candidates from the LGBTQ+ community. The Conservatives also have attracted many former MPs to run as well as many sitting legislators from provincial parliaments. With candidates in place and money in the bank, the Conservatives are perhaps the most prepared for the Fall contest.

There is an American Proverb that advises, “The only thing we learn from new elections is we learned nothing from the old.” Given the current snapshot this proverb is instructive: the 2019 federal election is shaping up to be a series of regional races like no other.

Chris George is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of CG&A COMMUNICATIONS. Contact: ChrisG.George@gmail.com

LINK: https://niagaraindependent.ca/a-labour-day-election-campaign-snapshot/