A Labour Day Election Campaign Snapshot

The Niagara Independent, September 6, 2019 — On the eve of the call of the Canadian federal election, here is a snapshot of polling numbers and trends on voter intention, compiled on Labour Day from available public opinion data.

 

Liberals enjoy a lead based on support in Ontario and Quebec

Politicking through the summer barbecue season made the election race even tighter between the Trudeau Liberals and Scheer Conservatives. Most national polls show a dead heat between the two parties. The 5-point lead the Conservatives held on Canada Day has evaporated. Popular support for the NDP has dipped and support for the other parties remained steady.

However, by breaking the numbers out regionally a clearer picture materializes. Conservatives enjoy large margins of support on the prairies; Liberals have the edge in Canada’s most populous provinces. Liberals lead Conservatives by 6 percentage points in Ontario and double that in Quebec. Because a vast majority of seats are found in central Canada, this bodes very well for the Liberals in all seat projections.

In analysing voter intention, Greg Lyle of the Innovative Research Group recently made an important point: Canadians who feel aligned to a particular party will most likely vote that way. Currently, more than three-in-four Canadians feel closer to one party than another. And more people feel closer to the Liberals than any other party. This is the case in Quebec where 29 percent of Quebecers align with the Liberals; 15 percent align with Conservatives and 14 percent align with the BQ. In “The Rest of Canada,” (TROC) Liberals enjoy an edge: 29 percent align with Liberals; 26 percent with Conservatives; 12 percent with NDP; 10 percent with Green. (Note 30 percent of Quebecers do not align with any political party, and in TROC 22 percent do not align with a party.) Lyle’s point in presenting these numbers is Canadians have more of an affiliation with the Liberal brand, so this speaks to a likely favourable result for the Trudeau Liberals.

 

PM Trudeau used the summer pre-writ period to the Liberals’ advantage 

Knowing the election date is less than seven weeks away on October 21, all eyes are now on the Prime Minister, as Canadians anticipate his walk to the Governor General’s Residence to request the writ be dropped to “officially” start the campaign. Once the campaign is called, all parties are placed on an even playing field and must stay within a $28 million spending limit.

The election law restrictions on spending is precisely why Justin Trudeau has been in no hurry to have the writ issued. As our Government representatives, PM Trudeau and Cabinet Ministers can travel the country with no limitations on their activities. In fact, the Liberals have made the most of the pre-writ period flying government jets into riding after riding. They have made 4,545 new spending commitments worth a combined $12.8 billion — in the month of August alone. To put these gross figures into perspective, in one month the Liberals committed approximately a quarter of all their funding promises that have been pledged since Fall 2015 when they were elected – totaling 16 percent of current and future federal government spending. Canadians have been wooed with the commitments of literally billions of taxpayers’ money. And because the election has yet to be called, PM Trudeau and his Cabinet Ministers have been unencumbered in spreading their joy.

 

Stories from the NDP and Conservative Campaigns     

The summer did not end well for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. This week Maclean’s blasted a headline “Is the NDP on the verge of collapse?” The magazine says the best case scenario for the party will be half its 2015 seat total, while the worst case will be to lose official party status. Then, news from New Brunswick reported that a total of 14 NDP candidates walked to the Green Party. The former NDPers issued an eight-point declaration encouraging “New Democrats, New Brunswickers and, indeed, all Canadians in voting for the Green Party of Canada this election.” Though the NDP numbers do not suggest the bottom has fallen out of Singh’s party, they are at historic lows for the NDP during a pre-election period. In Ontario, NDP support is at 14 percent while in Quebec (where a great many of the NDP MPs reside) it has fallen to 7 percent. Across the country NDP support lags 7 percent lower than the 2015 election results – support which appears to have leaked to the Green Party. At this level of support, it’s anxious times indeed for the NDP.

As for the Conservatives, Leader Andrew Scheer held a media conference to announce that they are the first party to have named a full slate of 338 candidates. This feat is well in advance of the other major parties that, combined, have almost 300 candidates yet to be named. The Conservatives have nominated 105 women, which eclipses their past high of 68 in 2011. The party also features a diverse list of candidates: Indigenous Canadians, Muslims, Sikhs, Jewish, Christians, Hindus, Buddhists and newly immigrated Canadians, and candidates from the LGBTQ+ community. The Conservatives also have attracted many former MPs to run as well as many sitting legislators from provincial parliaments. With candidates in place and money in the bank, the Conservatives are perhaps the most prepared for the Fall contest.

 

There is an American Proverb that advises, “The only thing we learn from new elections is we learned nothing from the old.” Given the current snapshot this proverb is instructive: the 2019 federal election is shaping up to be a series of regional races like no other.

 

Chris George is an Ottawa-based government affairs advisor and wordsmith, president of CG&A COMMUNICATIONS. Contact: ChrisG.George@gmail.com

LINK: https://niagaraindependent.ca/a-labour-day-election-campaign-snapshot/

 

Quotes on Elections

   

It’s been said that “The election is not very far off when a candidate can recognize you across the street.” So, with the Canadian federal election about to be called in the coming days, we bring you 20 political quotes on elections.  

 

  • A politician thinks of the next election – a statesman, of the next generation. – James Freeman Clarke
  • The election is not very far off when a candidate can recognize you across the street. – Kim Hubbard
  • Vote for the man who promises least. He’ll be the least disappointing. – Bernard Baruch
  • Of two evils, it is always best to vote for the least hypocritical. – American Proverb
  • If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal. – Emma Goldman
  • Elections are won by men and women chiefly because most people vote against somebody rather than for somebody. – Franklin P. Adams
  • A politician should have three hats.  One for throwing into the ring, one for talking through, and one for pulling rabbits out of if elected.  – Carl Sandburg
  • Some men change their party for the sake of their principles; others their principles for the sake of their party.  – Winston Churchill
  • Bad officials are the ones elected by good citizens who do not vote. – George Jean Nathan
  • Apparently, a democracy is a place where numerous elections are held at great cost without issues and with interchangeable candidates. – Gore Vidal 
  • Half of the American people never read a newspaper.  Half never voted for President. One hopes it is the same half. – Gore Vidal
  • In every election in American history both parties have their cliches. The party that has the cliches that ring true wins. – Newt Gingrich
  • The only thing we learn from new elections is we learned nothing from the old. – American Proverb
  • If elected I shall be thankful; if not, it will be all the same. – Abraham Lincoln
  • In times of stress and strain, people will vote. – Anonymous
  • What in fact takes place in an election is that two hand picked candidates are propped up before the citizenry, each candidate having been selected by a very small group of politically active people. A minority of the people… then elects one of these hand picked people to rule itself and the majority. –  Robert J. Ringer
  • Whenever a fellow tells me he is bipartisan I know he is going to vote against me. – Harry Truman
  • However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. – Winston Churchill
  • Don’t vote, it only encourages them. – Anonymous
  • If elected, I will win. – Pat Paulsen

Chris George provides reliable PR & GR counsel and effective advocacy. Need a go-to writer and experienced communicator? Call 613-983-0801 @ CG&A COMMUNICATIONS.

Post Election Analysis

The Post Election Analysis is in:  Hillary Clinton is the President of California

 

Here’s a short and informative read – an excellent analysis but I doubt if it will be discussed in the media. Our fore-fathers were brilliant!!!

We hear a cacophony of blaring and bleating from the media and the Hillary gaggle that she won the popular vote and therefore she should be president, 60,839,497 to 60,265,847 or 47.8% to 47,3% with the remaining 4.9% going to the other candidates.

But here are the facts: Trump won the popular vote in 31 states to her 19 and DC. 2% to her 38%. Trump led in the total popular vote for all states except California.

Hillary won California 5,860,714 to Trump’s 3,151,821. that’s 61.6% to 33.1% exclusive of the other candidates.

Thus California gave Hillary the popular vote for all states as claimed by the Democrats and their media stooges. But deduct her California vote from her national vote leaving her with 54,978,783, and deduct Trump’s California vote from his national total, leaving him with 57,113.976, he wins in a landslide in the other 49 states, 51.3% to her 48.7%.

So, in effect, Hillary was elected president of California and Trump was elected president of the rest of the country by a substantial margin.

This exemplifies the wisdom of the Electoral College, to prevent the vote of any one populace state from overriding the vote of the others.

Trump’s Campaign Manager, Kellyanne Conway, whose expertise is polling, saw this early on and devised her strategy of “6 pathways to the White House”.  This meant ignoring California with its huge Democrat majority and going after the states that would give him the necessary electoral votes to win, FL, NC, MI, PA, OH, and WI.

At its lowest point since the civil war!!! Could this mean the end of the Democrat Party? When the afternoon of January 20, 2017 arrives, the Republican Party will have:

1)  The Presidency.
2)  A majority of the House of Representatives.
3)  A majority of the Senate.
4)  Almost two-thirds of all the governorships.
5)  Total control of the statehouses in almost two-thirds of all the states.
And in the near future, Republicans will be able to add:
6)  A majority of the Supreme Court.

With the demand that we do away with the Electoral College and take the popular vote being pushed by the media, etc, all Americans need to know that the Electoral College is working exactly as our Founding Fathers intended.

 

(ed. – From the By George e-mailbox.)

Chris George, providing reliable PR & GR counsel and effective advocacy. Need a go-to writer and experienced communicator? 613-983-0801 @ CG&A COMMUNICATIONS.

FAV U.S. Election Memes (of the last week)

As the dust settles from what was a wild U.S. election, here are FAV memes of the past 7 days (right click on image, copy and share!).

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us_lewinsky

 

us-2016-election

 

us_04

 

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us_00

 

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Chris George, providing reliable PR & GR counsel and effective advocacy. Need a go-to writer and experienced communicator? 613-983-0801 @ CG&A COMMUNICATIONS.

 

 

Quotes on the Art of Campaigning

  • Political campaigns are designedly made into emotional orgies which endeavor to distract attention from the real issues involved, and they actually paralyze what slight powers of celebration man can normally muster. – James Harvey Robinson
  • A national political campaign is better than the best circus ever heard of, with a mass baptism and a couple of hangings thrown in. – H.L. Mencken
  • There are many elements to a campaign. Leadership is number one. Everything else is number two. – Bertolt Brecht
  • I do not believe that any political campaign justifies the declaration of a moratorium on ordinary common sense. – Dwight David Eisenhower
  • I have tried to talk about the issues in this campaign… and this has sometimes been a lonely road, because I never meet anybody coming the other way. – Adlai Stevenson
  • There is no excitement anywhere in the world, short of war, to match the excitement of the American presidential campaign. – Theodore White
  • I believe in the battle-whether it’s the battle of a campaign or the battle of this office, which is a continuing battle. – Richard Nixon
  • I offer my opponents a bargain: if they will stop telling lies about us, I will stop telling the truth about them. – Adlai Stevenson
  • Prosperity is necessarily the first theme of a political campaign. – Woodrow Wilson
  • In any grass-roots campaign, building an ongoing base of support is as important as winning the ultimate goal. – Patricia Ireland
  • You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose. – Mario Cuomo
  • A campaign is about defining who you are – your vision and your opponent’s vision. – Donna Brazile
  • The hardest thing about any political campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning. – Adlai Stevenson
  • Do not run a campaign that would embarrass your mother. – Robert C. Byrd
  • The problem with smear campaigns is that too often they work. – Mark Shields
  • Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right? – Robert Orben
  • During a political campaign everyone is concerned with what a candidate will do on this or that question if he is elected except the candidate; he’s too busy wondering what he’ll do if he isn’t elected. – Everett Dirksen
  • The idea that you can merchandise candidates for high office like breakfast cereal – that you can gather votes like box tops – is… the ultimate indignity to the democratic process. – Adlai Stevenson
  • Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. – Oscar Ameringer
  • Every two years the American politics industry fills the airwaves with the most virulent, scurrilous, wall-to-wall character assassination of nearly every political practitioner in the country – and then declares itself puzzled that America has lost trust in its politicians. – Charles Krauthammer

(ed. – This compilation of quotes first appeared in a By George Journal post of January 2010.)

Chris George, providing reliable PR & GR counsel and effective advocacy. Need a go-to writer and experienced communicator? 613-983-0801 @ CG&A COMMUNICATIONS.